Keep on Singing Trying, Don't stop Trying.

Keep on singing Trying, Don't Stop Trying

You're gonna be a star trader some day....

Sung to the the tune of Helen Reddy's Keep on Singing. (Yes, I am that old).

I am always wary of trading on the Monday after Non-Farm Friday.

Wouldn't you know it, the first two trades were duds? But sometimes, you just gotta keep on trying.

Less trading but surprisingly, better results.

"The market is one of the greatest teachers. It reveals itself to all of us each and every day if we are willing to pay attention. Too many times we try to box it, label it, or beat it."

Raghee Horner: ForeX Trading for Maximum Profit: The Best Kept Secret Off Wall Street

I haven't been trading much this last week because of Chinese New Year celebrations. It is our equivalent of Thanksgiving and Christmas all rolled into one weekend.

Old habits die hard! So I'm learning to kick them, one trade at a time.

"As I studied the problem, I saw that it wasn't a case that called for reading the tape but for reading my own self."

Edwin Lefèvre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (A Marketplace Book)

One year after my venture into trying to trade for a living, I realized that trading was a lot more about psychology than having the "holy grail" of a trading system. Albeit, you need to have some kind of system to base your trade entries. But it's evident that even with a 50% win ratio, you can make money while trading.

Evolution of a trader - spotting stochastics divergence on a chart.

He looked at me and furrowed his eyebrows. "You sure you want to trade?"
"That's why I am here."
"Well, it's not easy."
I couldn't agree with him entirely, but I nodded. "I know."

... Rob Booker: Adventures of a Currency Trader: A Fable about Trading, Courage, and Doing the Right Thing (Wiley Trading)

I may or may not be getting back my trading groove.

Chasing those pips on my first trading day of 2012

"The other qualification is "PATIENCE" to wait for the opportune time, when as many factors as possible are positioned in the traders favor. Poise and patience are the close friends of successful traders."

... Jesse Livermore - How to Trade In Stocks
The classic formula for understanding timing, money management, and emotional control

What do you do when you have days where you make a great market call. Did not take the trades. And then, see it move in the direction that you made the call by 50 or 60 pips? Then decide to go in, and every single trade in that direction is wrong????

Taking that leap of faith with $EURUSD by doing what has to be done.

"Know what you are going to do when the market does what it is going to do."

Michael W. Covel.
The Complete Turtle Trader, Harper Collins, 2007

Excuting a trade is a bit like jumping off a ski slope. 

Sometimes you just got to leap off that slope when it shows itself to you. I was sitting and watching $EURUSD just before the London open. Bossilator reading was at 350.

Swimming upstream, and following the flow of the market.

Salmons swim upstream, re-adapt their bodies to fresh water and then they spawn.

My trading life is not as dramatic as the Alaskan salmons. I certainly am not looking to spawn and leave my body as bio-fuel for my kid. I just want to collect some pips. But there are times like today when I do change my spots and go with the trend.

In all honesty,  I was waiting for a counter-trend trade...

I'm fighting back ...in the direction of the trend.

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog." ...Dwight D. Eisenhower

For the last week and a half, I have been having some pretty strange trading days. It's been a roller-coaster ride with break-even days and loss days.

Notice I didn't say win-days.

Hhmph....Breakfast and a morning $EURUSD setup

What is hhmph?!!!

I woke up this morning just before 6am(!) to make breakfast for JD (10 years old) who has to be in school by 7am. So after making a nutritious breakfast of; two perfect soft-boiled eggs (7 minutes soak in a large cup of boiling water... and they really are perfect), some toasted and buttered home made bread and an ice-cold chocolate for drinks, I asked: "How was that Buddy?"

"Hhmph..."

Insanity...how I lost control of the trading day.

I think insanity runs in my family. It's my only explanation for choosing to trade forex and continue to do it for these last couple of years without a nett positive year! (I am quite embarrassed to put down how long I have been doing this)

After 2 weeks of very good and disciplined trading; and following all the rules and identifying setups (Gosh! Horrors - I actually planned a trade - many trades in fact). I killed it all.

Hard to know when to stop

Sometimes it's hard to know when to stop....

Just before ECB release at 02:45EST, I took a quick trade for a fast 12pips. Sell at 4485, exit at 4473.

I hung on long enough to see a green 5min candle appear before I made an exit.  I decided to exit earlier since there were 2 news releases coming up Trichet's release and French Industrial Production. Also London was opening at 03:00am EST.

$EURUSD 10JUN2011 0630GMT 15Min

It reversed and went back up to EMA26 on the 5min chart to 4496 which did make me feel better. Earlier views of the 5min chart showed that it had been hitting resistance at EMA26, the earlier trade was a good one since it was also a retrace (18pip) from a significant low - 4480.

The 5min chart shows a clearer picture of the day's behaviour. Maybe I could have entered a bit earlier but I did like the 4pip red candle down as momentum.

$EURUSD 10JUN2011 0630GMT 5Min

The usual question is "when is it a good time to stop trading" since I had already hit today's target of 10pips.

$EURUSD started to come down after London open, that last green candle actually painted red at the end of that 5min. I wasn't sure whether I should take another trade but I did jump on the wagon and chased it with a quick SELL at 4460 to 4454. It was clear that it was heading towards 4450 but I just couldn't make myself hang on any longer for the ride.

Sometimes it's just too hard to hang in there...but the 1min ADX was topping off and the red line had entered no-man's land (middle zone). Maybe I would have done better if my senses was a little bit more numbed with a couple of beers. 

21pips is just under 2 hours is pretty good. My account is back up a little bit to where it was; after Tuesday's trades. But not anywhere close to where it was; before Non-Farm Payroll beat me down. 

I think I will celebrate this as a small victory.

Fear keeps me out of pips.

Non-Farm didn't work too well for me last Friday. 

My two mistakes were:

1. I traded when I said I wasn't going to take any trades for the day
2. I went against the trend...that contrarian nature in me took over and I learnt my lesson

For the last 2 days, I have been trading defensively trying to get the account back to where I was pre-Non-Farm. I am also working at trading in the direction of the trend for the day. Back to basics by looking at points of support and resistance in the smaller timeframe charts.

Sometimes defensive trading and fear keeps me from getting more pips. The fear of the previous losing trades keeps me from two things:

1. Holding on longer to a winning trade
2. Taking too long to enter into a trade when the setup appears

Today's trades brought in 10pips - average daily target achieved for the day but in typical greedy trader form, I think I could have done more.

A quick view of the charts showed downtrend since Asian session. On 1min chart, $EURUSD has been bouncing down from resistance at EMA62 and SMA200. Both trades were Sells. Started Trade 1 (4614 to 4610 for +4pips) at 14:42GMT, exited at 15:01GMT. Trade 2 (4602 to 4596 for +6pips) entry at 15:09GMT exit at 15:10GMT.    I usually expect $EURUSD to trade in the direction of the day until half hour before London close when it gets choppy. This was a safer time since there was no more news for the day since it was just after announcement of US Crude Oil Inventories.

$EURUSD  8JUN2011 5min

It's obvious from the 5min chart that I could have waited for the pullback in Trade 2 to exit instead of prematurely pulling back before the end of that 5minute candle.

The 1min chart ADX was rising, which meant that I could have held on until the red line crossed the signal line. 

$EURUSD 8JUN2011 1min

I know I didn't check this before exiting and if I did, my brain could have somehow ignored this. I remember thinking I was "feeling the Fear" since there was a pullback 3 hours ago at 4598. So when it broke past the 00 level, I was waiting "fearfully" for a pullback. Even thought the pullback didn't happen, I pulled the trigger and killed the trade in its track.

Next time I might have to sit a little bit further back from the screen and maybe breathe a little bit more.

15 Minute Charts

I am seriously going to look at the 15min charts for trade entries and setups. So far I have been looking at 5min setups which will probably get me to break even. But yesterday was a great trending and the momentum was fantastic leading up to today's Non-Farm payroll. If I took 15min setups, and Key Levels support and resistance, I might be able to escape some of the whip-saw trades that I am getting.

Yesterday was break-even (-4pips) considering I started with a loss of 14pips in the early Asian Session. And then didn't trade until noon of London session and later in US session. I recovered to break-even after all the US news.

Just after London close, I entered wrongly into a SELL even though I was waiting for the 50% retracement to enter on a BUY. This cost me a loss of 8pips. I quickly bought back following the major direction of the day which and recovered 10pips from 4429 to 4439. Decided I had enough after when it stalled at 4440. It was way after midnight and I couldn't stay awake.

$EURUSD 15min on 2Jun11

See all those 2 candle resistance after a 40 to 50 pip run. It happened at the 4300, 4480, 4450 and 4500. 

I have also been noticing the support at EMA62 and SMA200 Quite uncanny, I've also seen this  appear on the lower timeframes e.g. 1min and 5min.

Super Quick Scalps - EURUSD

14:57hrs London time.


Phew...what a day.


Got stuck in the pre-release of the CAD and US trade balance numbers. EURUSD was in a very tight range. I stopped the trade both times when a big 4 pip M1 candle appeared. Losses were about 10pips and 8 pips.


Got right back into it but with 1 mini-lot each time. After breaking even, EURUSD traded down to 1.4300. 2 quick scalps of 4pips each around the support 1.4300 number closed the gap. So I made my 10pips for the day. Bought against the trend of the day so had to get out really quickly. Hold on for 3 M1 candles. No more.


I wonder if I can do that regularly in congestion areas...50s and 00s. Something to think about.

Waiting for a Trade Setup

Yesterday, EURUSD created a daily doji. Support at 1.4250.

Looks like it is still trying to go down today.  I will try to wait until it re-test 1.4350 before taking a sell.

This will be hard...I had to force myself away from the 5mins chart so that I wouldn't take a buy trade at 1.4330. I think I am built to trade counter-trend and inexplicably trigger-happy. it was downright painful. I started up my twitter feed to force myself to follow the rules. 

Yesterday was a good day. Hit 25pips on 3 quick trades. All 3 trades were sells (in the direction of the trend)

Definitely trying to work on going with the major trend this whole week.

Here are the rules for the week:

1. Go with major trend
2. Confirm support or resistance at 15min chart
3. Exit at 7 - 1 min candles or when it hits major support/resistance e.g. 80, 00, or 50